Situations of Rapid Change – When Control Starts Slipping

This post is based on an article "Failing managerial systems under the impression of volatile organizational transformation - Exploring the managerial twilight zone"; Kolja Rafferty, 2025 https://open.spotify.com/episode/5FEBlW0OHkgiMRUm5QnIcg?si=KcxD-GGfQImHwZ22jgkLhQ Most companies do not fail because one big thing goes wrong. They fail because their management systems quietly buckle under escalating pressure – long before the cash runs... Continue Reading →

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UAE’s $1 Billion AI Initiative in Africa: A Strategic FDI Move Amid Transformative Demographics & Digital Opportunity

https://open.spotify.com/episode/74eAwyGnuvXaSR2MBXvr8H?si=d4dVA_61TFyW8YIlnNbIeQ In November 2025 the United Arab Emirates has announced a US $1 billion “AI for Development” initiative to expand artificial-intelligence infrastructure and AI-enabled services across Africa.  This is not merely another headline FDI. It signals a strategic positioning of technology-capital into a continent undergoing its own ‘Situation of Rapid Change’ (SRC), where demographic momentum,... Continue Reading →

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FDI vs Portfolio Capital: The Myth of Lasting Loyalty

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5GQc0smHJYNjj8xSOC1EX8?si=zKojYbJyT-Wj1TiQurcOGA Policymakers tout foreign direct investment (FDI) as "sticky capital" that builds factories and commits for the long haul development of a country. In parallel portfolio capital is easily dismissed as less attractive, volatile "hot money." Crises expose this as illusion: even physical assets exit via structured retreats, proving commitment stems from incentives, governance strength,... Continue Reading →

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China as Mirror, Not Master: What Beijing’s Role Reveals About Africa’s Development Challenge

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4TZiSJdmFoYxnlAzarFmKf?si=MDNJ10lHRV-NAnexviLZEQ China’s engagement in Africa continues to evoke polarized debate, is it a strategic partnership or a new imperialism? In reality, China reflects rather than defines Africa’s structural dilemmas. Chinese loans, contracts, and negotiation leverage do not create African vulnerabilities; they expose the continent’s lack of affordable long-term capital, weak domestic industrial capacity, and institutional... Continue Reading →

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Resource Nationalism: Control, Sovereignty, and the Shifting Logic of FDI

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3wa9M2CRAW2YsWR3j4szfL?si=DrkL5-0GQ1ak8cYRG-fr5Q Foreign Direct Investment is never just about capital. It is about sovereignty, bargaining power, and the long-term calculus of who controls value creation. Few concepts illustrate this more sharply than resource nationalism. At its core, resource nationalism is the assertion by a state that natural resources—oil, gas, minerals, even land and water, belong first... Continue Reading →

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South–South FDIs: The GCC’s Expanding Investment Horizon in Africa

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5qqmlGhBRqRBNNURVqbgl1?si=TGYDbtMcT6Wngatjm1o1MA For decades, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) was understood through the North–South axis: capital flowing from developed economies into emerging markets, bringing with it technology, know-how, and often political influence. Yet the 21st century is increasingly defined by a different dynamic: South–South FDIs, where emerging economies invest in one another, reshaping regional alliances and global... Continue Reading →

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Digital FDI – The New Battleground for Capital

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ooPvAIv2aEYuMHe4zAlAY?si=DmqBLEJ2RyGKWp4i-DRdAw Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) once meant smokestacks and free zones filled with warehouses. Today, it increasingly means data centers, AI labs, and cloud infrastructure. The Gulf, particularly Abu Dhabi, is pushing to anchor itself as a hub for this digital transition. Digital FDI refers to cross-border investment into digital infrastructure, platforms, and services, such... Continue Reading →

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“We Are Family” – At Work Is Misleading And Toxic

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3FnbhLVtFaIKPRNDbj7Idj?si=Z0aaaP3vQk6S8SQn5B-iZw There’s a phrase echoing around boardrooms and start-up slack channels that sounds warm and inviting: “We are all family here.” It promises belonging and mutual support - values we do, indeed, crave. Yet beneath its velvet veneer, this slogan can be more smothering than supportive. When a company declares itself a family, it doesn’t... Continue Reading →

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The Company Under Martial Law – Why Boards Fail When Companies Need Them Most

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6v9rW3xwJtQ0Ox77syd6Td?si=VOtJTPJZQtG3ewFfa-dlWw When a company hits the wall, governance either becomes a lifeline or an anchor. In Situations of Rapid Change, where transformation outpaces the firm’s ability to adapt, the traditional checks and balances of oversight collapse. Quarterly rituals and risk averse debates are no match for collapsing cash flow, a nervous lender, or a CEO... Continue Reading →

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Through the Fog – How to Think When the Rules Stop Working

https://open.spotify.com/episode/10Yz25DG5ieiMMVui6qRno?si=hA1C0w9JRjeaEF8llFV6Tg "The enemy of strategy is not volatility. It's false clarity." (Martin Reeves, BCG Henderson Institute) In strategy sessions and boardrooms, complexity often wears the mask of chaos. But not all chaos is created equal. Some forms of chaos are triggered by macroeconomic shifts or political shocks sudden, external forces that ripple across industries. Others... Continue Reading →

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The Rucksack Principle – How Leaders and Organizations Survive When Systems Fail

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4QtqKZvrJqzXprFC31aqvK?si=8ojmndN3Sp2RFvhWWazgWg When volatility strikes and systems crack, the context shifts, and ambiguity takes over, leadership isn’t about invention. Mid-battle there is no space for re-alignment, deep-dive, or frame-freezing. The momentum of markets shifting, eliminates those, who fail to adapt. Leadership in Situations of Rapid Change is about the Rucksack Principle. "No-one rises to the occasion;... Continue Reading →

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The Curse Of Competence – When Capability Becomes A Systemic Risk

https://open.spotify.com/episode/76ksJcRISlOx1XgJHmZYZ5?si=V6NwScEcR4CwhD3ve9RSTw Most organizations assume that capability is an asset to be rewarded and leveraged. In reality, dysfunctional systems invert this logic. High performers become the fail-safes, propping up weak structures and masking deeper issues. Over time, this dynamic imposes hidden costs that become systemic risks, undermining both resilience and long-term value. The Football Lesson These... Continue Reading →

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Out The Door At 600 Feet – When The Light Turns Green: Rationalization, And The Illusion Of Control In Business

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1xRVifq9jw7uCKmID0Hb6p?si=prUStTQuT62oq7nnpjNE7w Every executive craves order. This isn’t just a professional instinct, it’s a psychological need. In uncertainty, the boardroom fills with familiar rituals: dashboards, war rooms, “alignment” calls, and ever-grander scenario decks. The unspoken hope is that if we explain reality in just the right terms, if we rationalize well enough, we can bring order... Continue Reading →

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Sink Or Swim – The Paratrooper Mindset

the paratrooper mindset

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2zAHxVas9llcfsQn5d4kCN?si=-EUoSzZgST-Nxy6fALbvCg Management education relies a lot on the analysis of case studies and to memorize an array of economic theories. Equipped with this knowledge, managers aspire to outperform their peers to be selected for promotion. Yet, the truth is, task performance holds no information on leadership skills and management theory is, with few exceptions, building... Continue Reading →

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The Corona Misconception

feature image for the article "The corona misconception" about the coronavirus and the economic shift is provoking

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3DeZQgrCVJrLDi0jx250EA?si=gQLLOj85QjS7BEyVSOS9PQ For Generation X, born between the mid 60’s and late 70’s, blessed with the illusion of everlasting growth, and the succeeding Millennials, spoiled by the amenities of the modern information society, COVID was a hard stop from full throttle. When talking about startups, thoughts are with the young Bill Gates, smiling at a police... Continue Reading →

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The Good Coach Wins The Game – The Chairman And Their Team

The good coach - Image found on https://wallpapersafari.com/w/YsOcim

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5h17eub0cvRvoFhzMKjOuc?si=CyIBvCJpQvKl5Ca7DeuhSw In professional sports, mental readiness is key for champions. This is highlighting the importance of being mentally balanced also for senior executives. The Non-Executive Board must observe and nurture the mental health of the firm’s top executives in addition to overseeing the firm and acting as the interface between shareholders and executive management, to create resilient and sustainable organizations. Executives are skilled, able, and well-meaning! Yet, in situations of rapid... Continue Reading →

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Flying On Sight – Leadership Under Heavy Cash Constraints

Airplane leaving smoke behind - Fliying on sight leadership under cash constraints

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7HlheBDpBbJrNZ9G2TAWvk?si=0sLYh4tjQViU8VlVa9RZkw Cash constraints and scarce liquidity are notorious in Distress and Turnaround situations and often characterize situations of rapid change for many companies. Maneuvering under these conditions is often a question of discipline and applying the right tools in a timely manner. Challenges are faced on many levels of the organization, but ultimately it comes... Continue Reading →

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A post-COVID19 Workplace Scenario – Geographic Borders Will Be Removed From Talent Acquisition And Put Us All In Global Competition

fence separating two territories - post covid workplace scenario

https://open.spotify.com/episode/65qhuZxyTpiUwlk6NrH71Q?si=p35IWHzzQBeLJt2NecPagg COVID-19 has catapulted us to collaboration 2.0. The black swan event of a global pandemic has disrupted the work-environment. The urge to adapt is inevitably forced from the outside on companies, creating a situation of rapid change, where the dynamic of the transformation keeps accelerating. Companies are struggling to retain their operational integrity shaping... Continue Reading →

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In Corporate Turnaround – Choose Your Battles Wisely

Soldier after battle - corporate turnaround choose your battles wisely

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1RV4GxREwkZDqRLBnI1tbd?si=aoVz02LlSwO1dh1-mvUr4A High emotional engagement of the executive management can flaw the assessment of the situation of the firm and the decision, to discontinue an ineffective strategy. Yet, the lack of adaptability has been identified as a major reason for bankruptcy. This is intuitive, understanding, executives are maneuvering through vast uncertainties every day. In situations of... Continue Reading →

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Bankruptcy – An Avalanche In Slow Motion

An image of a snow avalanche referring to how bankruptcy is an avalanche in slow motion

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7iJHKtWuF937aHesQPGePE?si=5SGlJBmeTiO3istHDjEPiA “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.” “What brought it on?” “Friends,” said Mike. “I had a lot of friends. False friends. Then I had creditors, too. Probably had more creditors than anybody in England.” Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises Entrepreneurs and executives with experience... Continue Reading →

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A Tsunami Of Bad Debt Is Rolling To Our Shore, To Drown Unexpected Parts Of The Economy – And How To Survive

Tsunami image representing the amount of bad debt coming after the coronavirus pandemic

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0sxll0CW2njGvGML1TJRIc?si=fgQ6HV3DToumXvfNEwv3Bg Bankruptcy rates are closely linked to GDP volatility. In OECD countries the regular insolvency rate is around 8%. Though dramatic for the individual firms, this is a healthy process for the economy, as part of economic Darwinism, selecting the weakest market participants. Companies, failing to adapt to changing market conditions as a result of... Continue Reading →

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Coronavirus And The Economy – Severe Risk Of Bankruptcy And Financial Turmoil For SME Firms

Benjamin Franklin on a dollar bill with a facemask - Coronavirus effect in the economy

https://open.spotify.com/episode/24lSkQJriRzvCKnkVJosft?si=uudGoKYyQRa3IXXTCbb4OA COVID-19 has quickly evolved from a far-away tragedy, to what is now also a large economic threat to businesses all around the world. Numerous companies are finding themselves, suddenly facing situations of rapid change, where the dynamics of the transformation process are forced from the external and keep accelerating. Due to globalization, supply-chain processes,... Continue Reading →

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What´s Love Got To Do With It? – Should Shareholders Worry, If The CEO Gets Divorced?

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1pS1vk5djdwtbvWeaae9ji?si=9D_Ps5mPTSaYLkdSvnQxOQ Chief Executives carry the responsibility for shareholder returns, numerous jobs, and compliance of the firm on their shoulders. Workdays are never finished after 8 hours, and weekends are generally not off. Top leaders are assumed, to rely on a stable and supportive relationship, to emotionally balance for the responsibilities and stress levels associated with the... Continue Reading →

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Why You Cannot Trust Your CEO

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5YFKYMhaLpT8Dt1O07hgGo?si=wa9ZSx5BRxCHQBJeauSdFQ CEOs are traded just one level below Batman. They are rock-star-cherished for success and condemned to eternity to corporate no-man-land, upon failure. To monitor, observe and discipline this league of its own, shareholders appoint Non-Executive Directors (NEDs) to the Board of Directors (BoD). A (subtle) tension is often observed between the NEDs and the... Continue Reading →

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The Non-Executive Board – Praetorian Guard Against Activist Shareholders

fierce Praetorian guards in battle; corporate balance triangle

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3sW917ax7x9ZkJ9kHhlmQF?si=6U0_mRwnRryKQcJY_gqnTA Activist Shareholders raise their voice over the legitimate interest, associated with their actual investment. This is competing with the economic interest of other shareholders. Activities of Activist Shareholders are also eligible to distract the management's focus and attention. The role of the Board of Directors (BoD) includes to balance the different spheres of interest... Continue Reading →

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Activist Shareholders – The Role Of The Mean Dwarfs In SME Companies

Activist Investors - a dwarf in the middle of a board of directors

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5C5FoHYgwDw6Y1rTyUXUjn?si=WoD0Dh_sTtqbPvv-mL3hcg Management is facing investors, engaging directly in strategy and operations. The perception of Activist Shareholders is ambivalent. The impact on the company can vary from delivering higher returns but also causing significant inefficiencies. For the management, it is a thin line, how to answer to calls from shareholders, in order not to disconnect from its investors, but also... Continue Reading →

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All Investors Are Equal, But Some Are More Equal Than Others

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2oVgwAJd9UPPBwL1xgLWOg?si=mZp69H_NTJiGS5vEiIL_HQ The common understanding of investors is over-simplified. Authorities disregard irrationalities, as well as degrees of financial sophistication. The idea, of an idealized rational investor is flatten out the spectrum of different investor types. This creates misalignment with regulations as well complexity for investor relations. Current research identifies five major types of investors, based on... Continue Reading →

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The Board Of Non-Executive Directors – Toothless Tiger Or Turbo For Growth And Corporate Development

strategic leadership for effective boards

https://open.spotify.com/episode/291w46bUzeyyqVmfzh70HL?si=dudvDyQoSdqiccGDYdUF_A The Board of Non-Executive Directors (BoD) can contribute significantly to the long-term and sustainable growth of a firm and offers similar benefits as good (and expensive) top consultants or strategic departments in the corporate landscape. The role and composition of the BoD determines success or failure in everyday life. On the other hand, increasing... Continue Reading →

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All Good Things Come To An End – Lack Of Strategy Is The Major Cause Of Death In The Corporate World

https://open.spotify.com/episode/44kuPR0igShUJR343k0A3F?si=vgEzkFCXRGaHhPCiOQwSYA Following the right strategy is the key to long term going concern of a firm. As markets keep ever-changing, for mature companies, it’s vital to review the implemented strategies and also foster adaptability to new market conditions; whereas Start-Ups are observed to launch with mistaken market assessments and competitive strategies into the rough waters of competition. Both observations... Continue Reading →

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We Have All Read The Same Books?! – Yet, Performance In Turnaround Management Varies Widely

man frustrated around books - are all the books about turnaround the same

  https://open.spotify.com/episode/7HiNSSV7ad502vF1foGH7v?si=UcLH90QqSMeCsJp5qe7Hog If the executive team gets stuck in any of the five stages of the "process of depression" during the turnaround management, it is likely to lead to the bankruptcy of the firm. Severe troubles of a firm are often paralleled by a situation of rapid change, where the dynamics of (involuntary) transformation keep accelerating and... Continue Reading →

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Why Turnaround Specialists Are Always Called In Too Late To Distress Firms

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5gblZCu95Qatu8qoqa5s7V?si=i6Zs0k9wRJShkTi2lqQRdA It is fair to say, turnaround specialists, are often onboarded in the very last moment of distress situations. For firms, this can be dramatic, as the onboarding of a turnaround professional increases chances for going concern from (only) 12.5% to more than 90%. Reasons are linked to the degree of the ability of an... Continue Reading →

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Turnaround A Company For Going Concern? Rather Go To Las Vegas!

man playing poker - going concern

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0c7CgjVqnJ2xTU01SK28wn?si=0EHNsTJhTkqxXBbvQaJaRQ To secure going concern for a firm, a turnaround professional should on-board before the final struggle for economic survival has begun. If waiting too long, going concern is at stake and it is more promising to go to Las Vegas, to preserve investments. The suck of the downward spiral Root causes for distress situations putting going concern at... Continue Reading →

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How Long Should It Take, To Turnaround A Company?!

  https://open.spotify.com/episode/2UR6u5iyhwq55pxXMD6dJB?si=Ta6ny8exRi2bUKit6iEQ_A Steve Tobak from CBS MoneyWatch identifies three phases for a turnaround, in a situation of rapid change. The most important initial starting point of claiming control over the turnaround process is forgotten. When on-boarded, stopping the firm's downward trend is critical and the core objective of the turnaround CEO. This aims for multiple stakeholders,... Continue Reading →

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Managing The Turnaround – The Moment Of Managerial Truth

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3lqf1hXaovApRhU663tAr2?si=FsqqA0rBSSuR5QigkQ7O0A As a rule of thumb, a turnaround is considered something in the region of 12 for up to 30 months. Due to many uncertainties, the timeframe is varying. The objective of the turnaround is to reach break-even of the firm (again), or for start-up and growth firms, getting to the verge of scalability. Three milestones... Continue Reading →

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How To Survive A Turnaround – Pilots Through The Rough Waters Of Distress Situations

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0ZW0aKc6h9yrzcbl7kS3J7?si=JSMTY1LoQiKvZWbRVplq2A 10 facts on turnaround situations (US data, research by TMS - Turnaround Management Society). 172 businesses file for bankruptcy in the US per day, this translates into 320'000 jobs lost every year due to distress situations of firms. Many turnarounds could resolve distress situations and lead to success if understanding and managing such situations of rapid change... Continue Reading →

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The Autopsy Of A Start-Up Bankruptcy (Case Study)

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3s2NQFzUuWnoQrJw35KXcm?si=Mx2_nKp6T8KugLHt0ESueQ In autumn 2014 another promising and emergent Swiss Start-up filed for bankruptcy. Sadly, this is rather the rule than the exception. As out of every 11 serious ideas, only one succeeds. This delivers an attrition rate of approximately 90%. From the investor's perspective the numbers are even more frustrating, as "survival" is something significant... Continue Reading →

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The Digital Disruption Of The National State

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7hn67jFpS7KcM4UOf8f9fV?si=Jw_x-R0WRZOGcNWQxao0mw The concept, society has been arranged and governed by, for the past couple of hundred years, is disrupted by the digital transformation. This is happening right now. Today.   It is doubtful, if political leaders have anticipated this, nor if they will be qualified to manage through the increasing uncertainties and eroding governance. As the link between the governance... Continue Reading →

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Asking For The Whip In The Board-Room – How To Discipline Start-Ups And Reach ROI With Innovation

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3xz4MbM1obL73kO7TXPGGe?si=6_Et_q26TJCl-MDvLZg_wA The majority of start ups fails for precedented and avoidable mistakes. Though innovation needs a degree of freedom to evolve, the discipline, applied by the venture capitalist's whip can help the management, to focus on the right spot. Though uncomfortable, this might be critical to channel creativity and align with commercial success and ROI. ... Continue Reading →

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